A recent peer-reviewed study reveals that the Campi Flegrei supervolcano in Italy is showing signs of possible eruption. Situated near Naples, this volcano has become weaker over time, making it more prone to rupture. Researchers from England’s University College London and Italy’s National Research Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology used a model of volcano fracturing to study the volcano’s earthquakes and ground uplift. The study showed tens of thousands of earthquakes had occurred around the volcano, and the town Pozzuoli, resting atop Campi Flegrei, had risen by about 13 feet due to them. This eventuality caused parts of the volcano to reach breaking point, which is a cause for concern. The earthquakes resulted from fluids moving beneath the surface, possibly molten rock, magma or natural volcanic gas. The last major event at this supervolcano happened nearly six centuries ago, and it has been restless for several decades, with the 1950s, 1970s and 1980s seeing spikes of unrest. While there has been a slower phase of unrest over the past ten years, we cannot ignore the emergence of 600 earthquakes in April, establishing a new monthly record.
Campi Flegrei, also known as “burning fields,” is often referred to as a supervolcano that can produce explosions reaching the highest level (category 8) on the Volcano Explosivity Index. However, its most significant ever eruption technically ranked as category 7, which is still considered a significant and disastrous explosion. The researchers believe that this is the first time that the model has been applied to a volcano in real-time, and they plan to expand the use of the model to look at other volcanoes coming to life after an extended period of dormancy. The goal is to establish more robust criteria for deciding whether an eruption is likely, thereby creating a model that can be applied widely to other volcanoes. Although there is no guarantee of an eruption, the volcano may produce a rupture, which experts believe may open a crack through the crust. However, magma or other fluids must be pumping up from below for this to lead to an eruption. The study’s lead author, Professor Christopher Kilburn, stated that the research constituted the first of its kind to predict rupture at an active volcano, which marks a significant step in our objective of improving forecasts of eruptions worldwide.
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