The enigmatic situation surrounding the whereabouts and future of Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary group Wagner, deepened as Belarusian President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko stated that Prigozhin is currently in Russia, free from any legal repercussions for his rebellion against Moscow’s military leadership. Lukashenko mentioned that Prigozhin was in St. Petersburg before heading to Moscow or possibly another location within Russia. This revelation contradicts Lukashenko’s previous claim that Prigozhin had fled to Belarus. While Prigozhin remains at large for the time being, Lukashenko admitted uncertainty about his future fate. Lukashenko brushed off the notion that President Vladimir V. Putin would order Prigozhin’s assassination, despite recent tensions between the two.
The unexpected development of Prigozhin potentially being in Russia, less than two weeks after the failed coup attempt, adds yet another layer of complexity to an already perplexing situation. Recently, a television show aired a video claiming to show a police search of Prigozhin’s luxurious mansion in St. Petersburg, revealing incriminating items such as large amounts of cash, firearms, passports, wigs, and drugs. However, Prigozhin’s spokesperson denied any association with the house in question. Russian media outlets reported that Prigozhin was spotted in St. Petersburg on Wednesday or Thursday. A Pentagon official, speaking anonymously, suggested that Prigozhin has been in Russia since the mutiny, but his presence in Belarus remains uncertain, possibly due to his use of body doubles for covert operations. The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, dodged questions regarding Prigozhin’s location, emphasizing that the government has no interest or capability to track his movements.
In a rare news conference held in Minsk, Lukashenko basked in the international attention generated by this dramatic challenge to Putin’s authority. However, while Lukashenko boasted about his mediation efforts, he evaded providing clear answers about the future of Prigozhin and the Wagner group. Lukashenko emphasized his subservience to Russia and referred to Putin as “big brother” multiple times. Lukashenko stated that the decision on where Wagner would be deployed and what role they would play rested with the Russian leadership. He acknowledged speaking with Prigozhin, assuring that Wagner would continue fulfilling its duties for Russia, though he offered no specific details.
Over the years, Putin has sought to bring Belarus closer into Russia’s political, economic, and military spheres. Lukashenko, dependent on maintaining this relationship for his own power, managed to retain some degree of independence and even attempted to establish trade ties with the West. However, Lukashenko’s independence waned after Putin supported him in suppressing opposition protests in 2020, resulting in increased repression and international isolation for Belarus. Consequently, Belarus has become increasingly reliant on Russia for economic aid, energy, technology imports, and diplomatic support.
In February, during a meeting in Moscow, Lukashenko expressed his implicit agreement with Putin’s plans. Lukashenko’s collaboration was evident in allowing Putin to launch the invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian soil and permitting the stationing of nuclear-armed short-range missiles. However, Lukashenko has resisted directly involving Belarus’s military in the war. During the Wagner uprising, Lukashenko acted as a mediator between Prigozhin and Putin, claiming to have successfully resolved the conflict. Though the veracity of his claims remains uncertain. Wagner has gained notoriety for its mercenary activities in Ukraine, most notably leading the capture of the city of Bakhmut. Putin and the Russian government have recently sought to curtail Wagner’s independence, compelling its fighters in Ukraine to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. This shift was a major catalyst for Prigozhin’s rebellion.
Last week, Lukashenko offered an abandoned military base to Wagner fighters, and satellite imagery confirmed the construction of temporary structures at the site. However, Lukashenko now states that Prigozhin’s mercenaries are still at their permanent camps in the Luhansk region of Ukraine. Whether they will relocate to Belarus and in what capacity remains undecided, according to Lukashenko. He suggested that the Wagner units in Belarus could potentially be called upon to defend the country, highlighting their willingness to fight for Belarus in the event of a war. Lukashenko praised Wagner’s capabilities, indicating that at least some of the group’s fighting force may be retained.
By engaging with reporters at the Independence Palace in Minsk, Lukashenko aims to present himself as an independent power broker and gain credibility with the West. This opportunity for press interaction is rare in Belarus, where independent journalism is heavily restricted, and accreditation for Western journalists is only granted when it aligns with Lukashenko’s interests. The presence of these journalists and their focus on Lukashenko’s involvement in the negotiations between Putin and Prigozhin has generated national attention, given the state-controlled media’s focus on the president’s international stature.
In conclusion, the current situation surrounding Yevgeny V. Prigozhin’s whereabouts and the future of the Wagner group remains shrouded in mystery, with conflicting reports and uncertain outcomes. As the saga unfolds, Lukashenko treads a fine line between demonstrating his relevance as a mediator and maintaining his reliance on Russian support. The fate of Prigozhin and the Wagner mercenaries ultimately rests in the hands of the Russian leadership, as Lukashenko defers to Putin’s decisions.
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