Former President currently holds a commanding lead in Iowa, with a nearly 30-point advantage over his closest Republican rivals. This is according to the latest poll conducted by J. Ann Selzer, a renowned pollster in Iowa.
The survey also reveals a significant rise in support for former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is now tied with Florida Gov. . Both Haley and DeSantis remain popular among Iowa Republicans ahead of the Jan. 15 GOP caucuses.
However, it is worth noting that Trump’s supporters are more enthusiastic and committed to their choice compared to those backing Haley and DeSantis. Additionally, likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa are divided on whether Trump should continue to lead the GOP.
One poll respondent, Kendall Pelzer from Bettendorf, Iowa, expressed his support for Trump, saying, “My life was a lot better when Trump was in office. I felt safe; things were cheaper; he helped out the farmers and my parents. Things were better — plain and simple.”
According to Selzer, Trump’s dominant position in the field has only improved since August despite facing various legal challenges.
The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of Iowa was conducted from Oct. 22 to Oct. 26 and coincided with a volatile period in the 2024 election cycle, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Trump’s additional legal challenges.
In terms of candidate preferences, 43% of likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa choose Trump as their first-choice candidate, followed by DeSantis and Haley, who both garner 16% of the support.
Trump’s lead of 27 points is an increase from the August NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll, where he held a 23-point advantage over DeSantis. Haley had just 6% support at that time.
The survey shows Trump enjoying significant advantages across various demographic groups, including evangelical Christians, previous caucusgoers, first-time caucusgoers, and self-described Republicans. However, he holds a narrower lead among self-identified independents.
Sizable numbers still considering DeSantis, Haley, and Scott
Although Trump maintains a clear lead, a substantial number of Iowa Republicans are considering DeSantis, Haley, and Sen. Tim Scott.
DeSantis is the second choice for 27% of likely caucusgoers, and an additional 25% are actively considering him. Haley is the second choice for 17% and actively considered by 22%. Scott is the second choice for 10%, with 32% actively considering him.
Just 41% of caucusgoers say their minds are made up
The potential unpredictability of the upcoming Iowa caucuses is highlighted by the fact that 54% of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to change their first-choice picks.
In contrast, 41% claim to have made up their minds. However, Trump’s supporters demonstrate a higher level of commitment compared to DeSantis and Haley supporters.
Furthermore, the poll indicates that Trump’s supporters are significantly more enthusiastic about their candidate than supporters of other candidates.
Most caucusgoers dismiss Trump’s legal challenges
The poll also reveals that 65% of likely caucusgoers believe Trump can defeat President Joe Biden in a general election, regardless of the legal challenges he faces.
On the other hand, 32% believe Trump’s legal challenges will make it nearly impossible for him to beat Biden. However, opinions on whether Trump should remain the leader of the Republican Party are divided.
39% of likely Republican caucusgoers believe he should continue leading, while another 28% think it’s time to consider other leaders. 32% believe the party needs a new leader with better behavior and a different approach.
Other findings
The survey indicates that the preferences of likely Republican caucusgoers are primarily based on the issues (63%), rather than personality and leadership style (29%).
The most popular GOP candidates, in terms of net favorable ratings, are DeSantis (69% favorable, 26% unfavorable), Scott (61%, favorable 22% unfavorable), Trump (66% favorable, 32% unfavorable), and Haley (59% favorable, 29% unfavorable).
On the other end of the scale, the least popular candidates are Christie (20% favorable, 69% unfavorable) and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (17% favorable, 45% unfavorable).
The poll was conducted among 404 likely Republican caucusgoers from Oct. 22-26, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
