Over 50% of new cars sold in the United States by 2030 are expected to be electric vehicles, which presents a significant challenge for the country’s electric grid. The current system was built for a world that relies on fossil fuels, so it may struggle to handle the increased demand from electric vehicles. According to a study by Princeton University’s Rapid Energy Policy Evaluation and Analysis Toolkit (REPEAT), domestic electricity demand is projected to increase by 18% in 2022, 2030, and by 38% in 2035.
Rob Gramlich, the founder and president of Grid Strategies, a transmission policy group, explains that the country is facing a surge in power demand after not having much demand for the past 25 years. This increase in demand is primarily driven by the transportation sector, as more vehicles shift to electric power. Light-duty vehicles alone are estimated to use up to 3,360% more electricity by 2035 than they currently do.
However, simply transitioning to electric vehicles is not enough to effectively reduce carbon emissions. It needs to be accompanied by a substantial expansion of renewable energy. Gramlich emphasizes that both the supply and demand sides of the grid require significant improvements to meet these new requirements. This includes constructing more high-voltage transmission lines to transport electricity from rural wind and solar power plants to areas of demand. Additionally, there is a need for smaller distribution lines and transformers for efficient delivery of electricity to homes and businesses, as well as the installation of hardware like inverters to allow customers with home batteries, electric vehicles, and solar panels to feed excess energy back into the grid.
These grid upgrades come at a considerable cost. A study commissioned by the California Public Utilities Commission predicts that California alone will need to invest $50 billion by 2035 in distribution grid upgrades to meet its ambitious electric vehicle targets.
One of the major challenges lies in charging electric vehicles, as it requires a substantial amount of electricity. Comparatively, charging a Tesla Model 3 for an average annual mileage of 14,000 miles would consume a similar amount of electricity as an electric water heater over a year and about ten times more electricity than a new energy-efficient refrigerator. Larger electric vehicles, like the Ford F-150 Lightning, consume even more electricity than a central AC unit in a large home.
California’s Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) is leading the way in electric vehicle adoption, with around 470,000 electric vehicles connected to its grid in Northern and Central California. The utility aims to have 3 million electric vehicles connected to its grid by 2030. However, PG&E faces funding challenges as its last funding cycle was in 2021 and falls short of the required investments. To meet its electrification targets, PG&E is applying for state and federal grants.
Aram Shumavon, CEO of Kevala, an analytics company, warns that the electrification of transportation is not as simple as it seems. If not managed properly, there could be charging difficulties, long queues, and limited charging options. An overstressed grid would also be more vulnerable to extreme weather events and blackouts, as California experienced in 2020.
To meet the increasing electricity demand, the United States needs to focus on bringing more energy sources online, with a preference for renewable energy. However, the challenge lies in building more high-voltage transmission lines to transport solar and wind resources across different regions. Despite constantly upgrading and replacing old lines, there is minimal investment in building new transmission infrastructure. Gramlich estimates that the country needs an annual investment of $20-30 million in new capacity and transmission lines, which is currently close to zero.
Building new transmission lines faces regulatory hurdles at various levels, from multiple counties and states to utility service areas that need to agree on the project and its financing. Permitting is also a major challenge, as new energy projects undergo impact studies and cost evaluations.
Efforts are being made to expedite the energy infrastructure buildout, including permitting reform bills introduced by Senator Joe Manchin and supported by President Joe Biden. However, the political landscape remains complex, with differing viewpoints on fossil fuel infrastructure.
While the infrastructure buildout may take years to complete, there is an interim period where distributed energy resources can play a crucial role in stabilizing the grid. Residential solar and battery systems can help customers generate their own power and sell excess electricity back to the grid. Automakers are also equipping electric vehicles with bidirectional charging capabilities, enabling customers to use their vehicle’s battery to power their homes or provide electricity back to the grid. Emphasizing energy efficiency and optimizing charging times for large vehicle fleets are other strategies being considered.
In summary, the increasing adoption of electric vehicles in the United States poses a significant challenge for the electric grid. Upgrading the grid’s infrastructure, including building high-voltage transmission lines and improving distribution systems, is crucial to meet the growing electricity demand. The shift to electric vehicles must be accompanied by a significant expansion of renewable energy sources. California’s PG&E is at the forefront of electric vehicle adoption, but faces funding challenges. The electrification of transportation requires careful management to avoid charging difficulties and grid instability. Permitting reform and increased investment in infrastructure are being pursued, but regulatory hurdles remain. During the transition period, distributed energy resources and bidirectional charging capabilities can help stabilize the grid. Emphasizing energy efficiency and optimizing charging times are other strategies being explored.
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