President Joe Biden finds himself in a vulnerable position as he begins his reelection campaign. Despite consistently low job-approval ratings, with some polls even showing ratings as low as 40 percent, and widespread dissatisfaction with the economy, there is no panic within the Democratic Party regarding Biden’s prospects for 2024. No serious challengers have emerged to contest his nomination, and elected leaders have not called for him to step aside. While some Democratic operatives express concern about Biden’s weak poll numbers, the majority of party strategists still consider him the favorite for reelection.
The key factor behind this confidence in Biden’s prospects lies in the idea that voters will ultimately choose him over the alternative, particularly former President Donald Trump or a candidate similar to him, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Despite concerns about the economy and Biden’s performance or age, Democrats believe that a majority of voters will be unwilling to entrust the White House to Trump or another Republican nominee with a similar agenda. Biden’s father’s saying, “Don’t compare me to the Almighty; compare me to the alternative,” encapsulates this sentiment.
However, this optimism does not mean that Biden’s reelection is guaranteed. The outcome of the 2024 election could be determined by a handful of neighborhoods in key swing states. The closely balanced states and constituencies mean that even small shifts in preferences or turnout could decide the election. The battleground is evenly matched, and neither side can be complacent about their prospects.
Republicans have faced disappointing results in recent elections, especially after Trump’s victory in 2016. A coalition of voters, including young people, college-educated white voters, those unaffiliated with organized religion, and people of color, have mobilized against the conservative vision of the Trump-era Republican Party. While these voters may not be enthused about Biden, they are driven by their opposition to Trump and other Republicans.
Biden’s approval rating has fluctuated, and the pivotal period for his reelection prospects will come in the fall. Historically, this is when voter assessments of an incumbent president’s performance solidify, and the trajectory of their approval ratings becomes crucial. Biden’s rating will benefit if inflation continues to moderate and if voters feel the impact of his legislative achievements. However, there is also a risk of an economic recession, which could pose challenges for his reelection.
To win in 2024, Biden will likely need to attract voters who are dissatisfied with the state of the country and uncertain about giving him another term. This has historically been a challenging task for presidents. However, the 2022 midterm election showed that Democrats were able to minimize losses by winning over voters who were moderately disappointed in Biden’s performance and the economy.
Ultimately, the outcome of the 2024 election will heavily depend on the perceptions of a few crucial swing states and constituencies. The closeness of the battleground means that neither side can be overly confident, but Democrats remain cautiously optimistic about Biden’s chances for reelection.
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