Prepare for high drama at the Thanksgiving box office.
Before the long holiday stretch, Disney Animation’s music-infused original event pic Wish was anticipated to dominate. However, it might now place behind Lionsgate’s The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes and Napoleon, a joint production from Apple Original Films and Sony.
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The Hunger Games prequel is expected to easily secure the top spot at the North American holiday box office with projected revenues of $40 million or more from Wednesday to Sunday, following a solid $11.4 million on Friday. The film, which premiered the weekend before Thanksgiving, will close Sunday with a domestic total of almost $100 million in 10 days.
In a surprising turn, Ridley Scott’s new historical epic Napoleon is in a tight race with Wish for the No. 2 spot. The epic, starring Joaquin Phoenix, raked in $8.4 million on Friday, with a forecasted five-day launch of $32 million to $33 million. Napoleon, a triumph for Apple’s theatrical aspirations, is exceeding expectations for an adult drama, especially considering it received a B- CinemaScore from moviegoers, with the majority of ticket buyers being 35 and older.
Napoleon marks Apple Original Films’ second major theatrical endeavor after Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, which is currently showing in theaters through Paramount. Apple Original Films fully financed both high-profile releases, both of which have their sights set on the Oscars. Sony serves as Apple’s global distribution and marketing partner for Napoleon.
Before the Thanksgiving timeframe, Napoleon was looking at estimated five-day holiday earnings of $22 million to $25 million.
Initial projections had Wish, an original story with no associated intellectual property, claiming the top spot over Thanksgiving with a projected five-day box office income of $45 million to $50 million. However, it is now aiming for $32 million to $33 million in that same time period.
Disney has faced a challenging year at the movies, culminating in the recent disappointing performance of The Marvels. The film Wish, which grossed $8.3 million on Wednesday, might recover from its soft opening if it plays into December and over the year-end holidays, boosted by an A- CinemaScore and strong PostTrak exits.
Universal and Illumination’s Trolls Band Together is poised for a fourth-place finish, with estimated five-day earnings of $25.5 million.
Slasher film ‘Thanksgiving’ from TriStar and Spyglass Media will close out the top five in its second weekend with an estimated five-day total of $11.4 million.
On the awards front, Focus Features’ The Holdovers appears to be at No. 7 with five-day holiday earnings in the $4 million range.
Searchlight’s Next Goal Wins and MGM/Amazon’s Saltburn are both aiming for five-day revenues in the range of $2.7 million.
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