The media’s top question to Republican presidential candidates revolves around whether they would pardon Donald Trump. On the other hand, the candidates themselves are pondering whether Trump’s second indictment will have the same effect on his poll numbers as the first one did. Additionally, they wonder if a potential third or fourth indictment would erode enough primary support for Trump, giving other candidates a chance at the nomination. With major events unfolding in the GOP primary race, the saying “the more things change, the more they remain the same” seems fitting. Despite facing criminal charges and a civil sexual assault and defamation case, Trump still holds a significant lead over the rest of the 2024 field. More investigations targeting him are ongoing, which means he could face up to four indictments before the Iowa caucuses in January. The fact that Trump hasn’t faced significant repercussions among GOP voters is perplexing to his rivals and anti-Trump party leaders, who are refining their arguments. While they mostly avoid direct criticism, they argue that the indictments make Trump unelectable in a general election, equating nominating him with four more years of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Republican figures, like former House Speaker Paul Ryan and GOP Sens. John Cornyn and Bill Cassidy, are making similar arguments, alongside some Republican governors. Trump’s rivals and critics believe that a substantial portion of his primary support is vulnerable and can be swayed. However, recent polls since the unsealing of charges regarding his possession of classified documents on June 9 show no significant decline in his support. In national polls conducted since then, Trump maintains an average lead of 30 points over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is the closest competitor with an average of just 21.5%. This gap has narrowed slightly compared to late May, where Trump held a 33-point lead over DeSantis. The fluctuation in early state polls is not enough to establish a reliable trend. Trump leads by 15 points in a recent Iowa survey, down from 42 points in a May poll by different pollsters. Conversely, his lead in New Hampshire has expanded to 32 points from 21 points in May, although these are single polls conducted by different pollsters. The key factor that sustains Trump’s support is the belief among his followers that they are the ultimate target of the radical left and the corrupt deep state. They perceive the ongoing prosecutions against Trump as persecutions against him and themselves. Their latest concern is the fact that the first two cases against a former president in American history were brought by Democrats, which deviates from how similar cases have been historically treated. Far-left Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s case targeted Trump’s businesses, bringing felony charges instead of the usual misdemeanor bookkeeping charges. Furthermore, the federal charges over documents were initiated by President Biden’s Department of Justice and highlight the leniency Biden received compared to Trump despite an FBI probe into Biden’s handling of secret documents. The public reaction to the federal indictment against Trump is noteworthy, with 47% of respondents in an ABC News poll saying that the charges are politically motivated, compared to 37% who disagree. Among Republicans, 80% believe the charges are politically motivated, while only 16% deem them valid. The two remaining cases are also Democratic-led, one being a probe by Biden’s Justice Department related to the Capitol riot, and the other being a Georgia state investigation focused on the 2020 election aftermath. The argument within the GOP is that these cases will hinder Trump’s chances of winning a general election, as they may alienate independent voters in swing states, leading to an Electoral College loss. Figures like New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu forcefully assert that the math shows Trump has no chance of winning in November 2024. They point to Trump’s troubled history in Georgia, where he narrowly lost to Biden in 2020 and his endorsed candidates lost three consecutive Senate races, tipping the balance in favor of Democrats. While the DeSantis camp quietly cites the Georgia example, a political action committee supporting Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp brings it to the forefront. This PAC released a poll showing Trump leading Biden by only one point, while a generic Republican wins by 10. Kemp, who clashed with Trump over overturning the 2020 results but won a primary against a Trump-backed opponent, is being urged by some business leaders to enter the presidential primary. New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, who considered running for president, uses the importance of the state’s primary to shape the field and argue against Trump. His endorsement could be significant. Sununu argues that nominating Trump effectively means voting for Joe Biden in the primary. Although it’s a compelling argument, it may be premature. Most polls still indicate a close race between Trump and Biden. It is likely that Republicans who might consider abandoning Trump would need more concrete evidence that he cannot defeat Biden. Until then, they remain loyal to him.
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