In July of 1945, the scientists working on the Manhattan Project, including J. Robert Oppenheimer, were about to test their new atomic bomb in the New Mexico desert. However, they had limited knowledge about how the bomb would behave. When the test, code-named “Trinity,” took place on July 16, the resulting blast was much stronger than expected. The radioactive mushroom cloud also reached a much higher altitude than anticipated. A recent study, which is currently undergoing peer review, reveals that the fallout from the Trinity test traveled farther than anyone had previously thought.
Using advanced modeling software and newly discovered historical weather data, the study’s authors demonstrate that the radioactive fallout from the Trinity test reached 46 states, as well as Canada and Mexico, within 10 days of the detonation. This finding, while significant, is not entirely surprising, according to Sébastien Phillippe, the lead author of the study and a researcher at Princeton University. The study also investigated the fallout from 93 aboveground atomic tests conducted in Nevada and created a map showing the distribution of radioactive material across the contiguous United States.
Determining how much of the Trinity fallout remains at its original deposition sites across the country is challenging. Susan Alzner, one of the study’s authors and a co-founder of shift7, an organization that conducted the research, describes the findings as a “frozen-in-time image” that shows the initial impact of the fallout when it first hit the ground in 1945. These findings could potentially support efforts to expand compensation from the federal government to individuals who may have been exposed to radiation from atmospheric nuclear explosions.
At the time of the Trinity test, the Manhattan Project scientists and doctors underestimated the reach of the fallout. Their concern was mainly focused on acute risks in the immediate vicinity of the detonation site, with limited understanding of how radioactive materials could affect ecosystems near and far. Dr. Stafford L. Warren, a Manhattan Project physician, reported to Lt. Gen. Leslie Groves that the Trinity cloud lingered over the northeast corner of the site for several hours before moving in different directions. The scientists at the time did not have access to crucial data, and the United States did not have national monitoring stations in place to track the fallout.
Interrupted by a lack of essential data, subsequent attempts to study the Trinity test’s fallout have faced challenges. Historical weather and atmospheric data was only available from 1948 onwards, making it difficult to compare Trinity’s fallout to the later Nevada tests. Despite these obstacles, the research team persisted and sought to fill in the gaps. The breakthrough came when they obtained historical weather data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, which provided the most accurate hourly reconstruction of weather patterns from 1940 onwards. Armed with this new data and software built by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Dr. Philippe conducted a reanalysis of Trinity’s fallout.
The study’s authors acknowledge that there are limitations and uncertainties in their calculations but maintain that their estimates are likely conservatively low. M. V. Ramana, a professor at the University of British Columbia, describes the study as comprehensive and well-executed.
The results of the study highlight the significant impact of Trinity’s fallout on New Mexico, with the cloud primarily spreading over northeast New Mexico and parts of the surrounding area. The study reveals that New Mexico received a substantial amount of deposition from both Trinity and Nevada’s aboveground tests. Socorro County, where the Trinity test took place, has one of the highest deposition rates per county out of all counties in the United States.
This new understanding of Trinity’s fallout could have implications for individuals seeking compensation in New Mexico and other affected areas. Currently, Trinity “downwinders” are not eligible for compensation under the Radiation Exposure Compensation Act. Efforts to expand and extend the legislation are underway, led by Senator Ben Ray Luján. Census data from 1940 suggests that up to 500,000 people were living within a 150-mile radius of the test site, with some as close as 12 miles away.
Overall, the study sheds light on the extent of the fallout from the Trinity test and its impact on various regions across the United States. It also underscores the importance of keeping the history and legacy of nuclear testing in the public discourse, as many Americans, particularly younger generations, remain unaware of the extent to which nuclear testing affected the country.
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