Representative Steve Scalise expressed his eagerness to start working after narrowly winning the nomination to serve as the next speaker at a private party meeting. Scalise emphasized the importance of showing the world that the House is open and focused on the people’s business.
Scalise’s urgency stems from the growing list of issues that Congress needs to address, both domestically and globally. Without an elected speaker, the House cannot take action on these matters. The government faces a potential shutdown on November 17 if lawmakers fail to act. Additionally, Ukraine and Israel require increased funding from the U.S., with Israel currently engaged in a conflict with Hamas.
However, Scalise faced opposition from fellow Republicans. In order to secure the speakership, he needed the support of 217 out of 221 GOP members. Defections from his camp started appearing immediately. More Republicans publicly opposed his bid, leading Scalise to withdraw from the race in less than two days as the Republican nominee.
What began as a personal vendetta against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy by Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida quickly developed into a crisis with broader implications. This situation not only threatens the slim and divided GOP majority but also affects the country and its international allies. Representative Michael McCaul of Texas, the Republican chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, warned that the current impasse is dangerous and akin to playing with fire.
The resolution of the speaker fight will determine key issues such as a potential government shutdown, funding for Ukraine, and funding for Israel:
A government shutdown:
Kevin McCarthy managed to avoid a government shutdown by securing Democratic support to pass a temporary extension of federal funding. However, this temporary fix only provides seven weeks to negotiate budget bills for the remainder of the fiscal year. Republicans have already wasted valuable time arguing over McCarthy’s replacement. A budget agreement proposed by Representative Jim Jordan suggests another temporary extension might be necessary, potentially triggering spending cuts.
To prevent a shutdown, Republicans might need to elect a caretaker speaker like Representative Patrick McHenry or Representative Tom Cole. These individuals could serve temporarily to address the funding crisis before making way for a longer-term leader.
Funding for Ukraine:
McCarthy refused to pass additional aid of $6 billion for Ukraine, even though it had bipartisan support and was sought by the Biden administration. Scalise and Jordan have not committed to providing further funding either, appeasing GOP hard-liners who demand secure borders before approving more aid. Democrats fear that electing either Scalise or Jordan as speaker would jeopardize American aid to Ukraine.
If Republicans can’t secure enough votes to elect a speaker, Democrats might agree to support a more moderate candidate in exchange for a House vote on an aid package for Ukraine. This scenario highlights the danger of a Republican speaker candidate making a deal with extremists who oppose providing aid to Ukraine.
Funding for Israel:
Hamas’s attack on Israel could open the possibility of Ukraine funding. Despite some opposition, support for Israel remains strong in Congress. Scalise, wearing American and Israeli flag pins, demonstrated his support for Israel. Democrats are discussing a combined funding package for Israel and Ukraine, hoping that linking the two issues will help secure approval for Ukraine aid.
However, the success of this strategy is uncertain. During a State Department briefing, Republican Representative Derrick Van Orden vehemently opposed the idea of linking Israel and Ukraine funding. The deadlock within the Republican party prevents any definitive action until a leader is chosen.
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