Thirteen games fill out Thursday’s MLB schedule, but expert bettors are targeting three in particular.
All the information about to be presented is drawn from the Action Network PRO Report, which provides betting percentages and five “signals” — sharp money, big money, PRO systems, model edge and expert picks — that help distinguish certain plays.
Today’s report sees three sides — all underdogs — trigger at least three of the above signals, including one that triggers all five.
With that said, let’s dive into the report’s recommendations.
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Expert MLB predictions, picks today
Game #1 – Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants, 3:45 p.m. ET
The Dodgers have picked up the first three of a four-game set, but experts are backing the Giants today.
Although sharp action has come in on the Dodgers, three of the remaining four signals trigger San Francisco. First, big money support is heavily in the Giants’ direction — as of this writing, they have received only 14 percent of all bets against 58 percent of the total handle.
Further, there’s a model projection edge with this contest. According to Action Network MLB power ratings, the Giants moneyline should be priced at +158. For reference, the current top price is +188.
Lastly, one top MLB betting expert from The Action Network is backing the Giants to round out the three signals going in their direction.
Dodgers vs. Giants PRO Report Pick
San Francisco Giants Moneyline (+188) — Fanduel Sportsbook
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Game #2 – Colorado Rockies at San Diego Padres, 4:10 p.m. ET
The Padres have won the first four of a five-game set, but experts are showing belief in Colorado today.
Although sharp action is heading toward the Padres sizable moneyline, big money bettors are getting behind the Rockies in spades. As of this writing, Colorado has received only 16 percent of all moneyline bets against 70 percent of the total handle.
Additionally, this matchup also sees a model projection edge. According to Action Network MLB power rankings, the Rockies should be priced closer to +204. Currently, their top price available is +252.
Lastly, one top MLB betting expert from The Action Network is backing the Rockies to round out the three signals going in their direction.
Rockies vs. Padres PRO Report Pick
Colorado Rockies Moneyline (+252) — WynnBet
Game #3 – Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies, 7:05 p.m. ET
We’ve reached our consensus PRO report pick as expert bettors LOVE the Nationals tonight.
We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the Nationals moneyline, which opened at +205 but now hovers around +200. Additionally, big money support has arrived for Washington — as of this writing, it has received only 16 percent of all bets against 66 percent of the total handle.
There’s also both a PRO system and model projection edge for this contest. In terms of the former, the Nationals are identified via the “Betting Against the Public” system, which looks for divisional underdogs receiving less than 30 percent of all bets. Historically, that system has a 45 percent win rate and eight percent return on investment.
As for the modeling projection, Action Network MLB power ratings make the Nationals a +165 underdog, giving prospective bettors about 35 cents of value. Lastly, one top expert from the Action Network is backing the Nationals to satisfy all five signals for the visitors.
Nationals vs. Phillies PRO Report Pick
Washington Nationals Moneyline (+192) — Caesars Sportsbook
