Rishi Sunak’s concerns regarding the cost of achieving net zero have been present for a while. However, some close to the UK prime minister believe that the recent green pivot can be traced back to July 20, the day of the Uxbridge by-election. The Conservative Party’s unexpected victory in Uxbridge highlighted the electoral power of prioritizing household budgets over environmental considerations, capturing the attention of the government.
On Wednesday, Sunak announced that he would be diluting key net zero targets, including the postponement of the ban on new petrol cars by five years. This move was seen as a gamble to revive the Tory party’s prospects nationally by leveraging the local politics of Uxbridge. Tory MP Craig Mackinlay, chair of the Conservatives’ net zero scrutiny group, believes that this shift will appeal to hard-pressed consumers and praised the prime minister’s “sensible pragmatism”.
While the policy shift faced backlash from some sections of the industry and eco-minded Tory MPs, Downing Street believed it would help Sunak address key challenges leading up to the general election. One of these challenges is appearing as a “change” candidate after 13 years of Conservative rule. Sunak emphasized in his speech that his new approach on net zero was a significant departure from his predecessors. He accused previous governments, both Labour and Conservative, of failing to honestly communicate the cost of reducing emissions. In an attempt to underscore this theme, he used the word “change” 27 times during his speech.
Some government insiders were initially against challenging the “orthodoxy” on green issues. However, Isaac Levido, Sunak’s campaign adviser, was actively seeking dividing lines with Labour. Other aides agreed that the move could help the prime minister differentiate himself from Sir Keir Starmer and establish a strong contrast on green issues by positioning himself as someone who understands the concerns of consumers grappling with inflation.
Sunak’s team believed that the prime minister had stabilized the government after the upheavals caused by Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. They felt that the time had come for him to take risks and adopt a different approach to key policy questions. A government official stated that while Sunak genuinely believes in achieving net zero by 2050, he did not think the UK should be an extreme outlier compared to other developed nations in terms of its targets. The official highlighted that the car target had been aligned with that of EU nations.
Some cynical Tory MPs noted that their colleagues had been growing impatient with Sunak’s cautious approach, which has left the party trailing Labour by an average of 19 points in the polls. There had been increasing calls within the Tory ranks for a significant “reset” moment this autumn, seen as Johnson’s last opportunity to present a new agenda before the expected election next year.
Despite facing criticism from some parts of the motor industry and a small group of environmental advocates within the Tory party, many government insiders are pleased with how the policy shift has been received. Although a leak to the BBC forced Sunak to move his speech forward from Friday to Wednesday, and disrupted plans to brief stakeholders in advance, both the pivot and Sunak’s newfound fighting spirit have garnered support from some Conservative MPs.
The public’s response to these changes remains to be seen. A YouGov poll following Sunak’s net zero announcement showed that his net favorability had dropped further to -45, his lowest score to date. Nevertheless, some relieved Tories commented that for the first time in a while, Number 10 had set the agenda and taken control of the narrative. Rishi Sunak was seen as owning the stage and policy shift.
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