Republicans and Democrats may not agree on much, but there is one area where a significant portion of both parties find common ground: their belief that the country is headed towards failure.
According to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll, 37 percent of registered voters believe that the problems are so severe that the nation is in danger of failing.
Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 56 percent share this outlook. It’s worth noting that while this perspective is more prevalent among voters whose party is out of power, it is also present among around 20 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.
Where they differ is in their understanding of what has brought us to this point.
Why Republicans believe the U.S. is in danger of failing
Republican fatalists, like Republican voters overall, overwhelmingly support Donald J. Trump. This group tends to be older, with two-thirds of Republicans over 65 believing that the country is on the verge of failure. They also tend to be less educated and are more likely to get their news from non-Fox conservative media sources.
Many of these pessimistic Republicans attribute the country’s precarious state to the policies of the Biden administration. They see actions like opening the border and undoing Trump’s accomplishments as signs of the nation’s descent into communism.
Margo Creamer, a 72-year-old Trump supporter from Southern California, expressed her concerns, stating, “Things are turning very communistic. The first day Biden became president he ripped up everything good that happened with Trump; he opened the border — let everyone and anyone in. It’s just insane.” According to Creamer, the only way to reverse this course is for Trump to win the next election.
Many Republicans also attribute the country’s decline to the impact of the pandemic, both in terms of public health and the resulting economic consequences.
According to Dale Bowyer, a Republican in Fulton County, Ind., COVID-19 served as a wake-up call for citizens regarding the government’s control over their lives. He believes that the country’s response to the pandemic, such as lockdown measures, demonstrated a complete takeover of the United States. He stated, “Keeping us in our houses, not being allowed to go to certain places, it was complete control over the United States of America. They think we’re idiots and we wouldn’t notice.”
Why Democrats believe the U.S. is in danger of failing
While fewer Democrats view the country as nearing collapse, the gender divide stands out as the defining characteristic associated with this pessimistic outlook. Democratic and Republican women are more likely than their male counterparts to share this perspective.
Ann Rubio, a Democrat and funeral director in New York City, expressed her distress, stating, “I have never seen things as bleak or as precarious as they have been the last few years. Saying it’s a stolen election plus Jan. 6, it’s terrifying. Now we’re taking away a woman’s right to choose. I feel like I’m watching the wheels come off something.”
For many Democrats, specific issues like abortion are driving their concerns about the country’s direction.
Brandon Thompson, a 37-year-old Democrat and veteran living in Tampa, Fla., voiced a range of concerns about the state of the country, including regressive laws, lack of abortion access, and voter suppression efforts. He said, “The regressive laws being passed; women don’t have abortion access in half the country; gerrymandering and stripping people’s rights to vote — stuff like this is happening literally all over the country.”
Brandon Thompson concluded, “If things continue to go this way, this young experiment, this young nation, is going to fall apart.”
More than just on the wrong track
Traditionally, pollsters have asked a simple question to gauge the nation’s sentiment: Are things in the U.S. headed on the right track or the wrong direction?
In recent years, Americans’ views on this question have become more polarized and closely tied to their perception of the party in power. Currently, 85 percent of Republicans believe the country is on the wrong track, compared to 46 percent of Democrats. These numbers often reverse when a Republican occupies the White House.
Views on the country’s direction also correlate with the economic environment. Currently, 65 percent of Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a relatively high figure historically. However, it has decreased from the peak of 77 percent during a period of high inflation last summer. In 2008, at the height of the recession, 81 percent believed the country was on the wrong track.
What is surprising, though, is the significant proportion of voters who believe that the country is on the verge of collapse.
William Dickerson, a Republican from Linwood, N.C., expressed his concerns about the country drifting away from its founding principles. He said, “Society as a whole has become so self-aware that we’re infringing on people’s freedoms and the foundation of what makes America great.” Dickerson believes that if things continue this way, the nation will fall apart.
Respondents in the Times/Siena survey were only asked the “failing” question if they already expressed a belief that the country was on the wrong track. Despite this, the pessimistic responses are striking. Two-thirds of Republicans who believe the country is on the wrong track also believe that America is in danger of becoming a failed nation.
Alia Braley, a researcher at Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab, suggests that Republicans’ lack of faith in the electoral system, fueled by Trump and other members of their party, can become a self-fulfilling prophecy that erodes democratic behavior. She said, “If Republicans believe democracy is crumbling, it can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, in that they will stop behaving like citizens of a democracy.”
Braley adds, “Democrats are often surprised to learn that Republicans are just as afraid as they are about the future of U.S. democracy, and maybe more so.”
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