Padres move up after Juan Soto trade

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The dust has finally settled on the 2022 MLB Trade Deadline, and if you bet on the San Diego Padres before noon ET on Tuesday, congratulations.

As expected, the Padres were the biggest mover on the betting board after acquiring Juan Soto and Josh Bell from the Washington Nationals for Luke Voit, MacKenzie Gore, C.J. Abrams, Robert Hassell, James Wood, and Jarlin Susana.

The Padres, who were as long as +2500 to win the World Series before the All-Star Break and +2000 before the Soto trade, are now +1000 to win the World Series, behind only the Yankees (+330), Dodgers (+350), Astros (+400) and Mets (+600).

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Juan Soto
Juan Soto
Getty Images

The 23-year-old Soto is having a down year relative to his lofty expectations — he’s finished inside the top-5 in MVP voting in back-to-back seasons — but still boasts an .894 OPS this season with 21 home runs and 46 RBIs. Over his 565-game career, Soto is slashing .291/.427/.538 with 119 homers and 358 RBIs. Per Baseball Reference, Soto has posted 21.6 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) over his career.

Landing Soto and Bell was a massive coup for the Padres for a number of reasons, but it shouldn’t be overlooked that one of the pros to the deal is it kept the generational talent from landing with the Dodgers or Mets, the only National League teams ahead of the Padres in the National League. Had the Dodgers landed Soto, they likely would have hopped over the Yankees to become the consensus World Series favorite, while the Mets would have probably found themselves shorter than +500.

Similarly, there was some betting interest in the St. Louis Cardinals before the deadline to try and get ahead of a potential Soto move, but the Redbirds lost out to San Diego before trading for Jordan Montgomery in a surprising swap with the Yankees. St. Louis is two games back of Milwaukee in the NL Central and remains a relative longshot at +3500.

While the Padres stole the show with the Soto move (and also acquired Josh Hader on Monday), it was a relatively quiet deadline for both the Mets and Dodgers, which further added to the betting intrigue surrounding San Diego. The only impact moves the Dodgers made was a buy-low trade for Joey Gallo, while the Mets shored up their bullpen with a move for Mychal Givens and added some depth with Tyler Naquin, Daniel Vogelbach, and Darin Ruf.

Fernando Tatis Jr.'s imminent return will provide a tremendous punch to the Padres lineup
Fernando Tatis Jr.’s imminent return will provide a tremendous punch to the Padres lineup
Getty Images

We didn’t really see much odds movement when it came to the American League, though there was some speculation that the Blue Jays could have been a mover and shaker in an attempt to close the gap between them and the Yankees and Astros. That didn’t end up coming to fruition as the Jays tinkered around the edges with moves for Anthony Bass and Whit Merrifield.

And while the Yankees were quite busy — adding Andrew Benintendi, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Scott Effross and Harrison Bader — their odds didn’t really budge, but that’s because they’re already a pretty short favorite at +330.

Betting on Baseball?

If you’re looking for a potential punt on a sleeper, the Philadelphia Phillies made a couple of interesting gambles at the deadline by acquiring Noah Syndergaard and Brandon Marsh from the Angels, as well as David Robertson from the Cubs. The Phillies are still a longshot at +5500, but they’re currently in the final Wild Card spot and have an easy schedule that includes 11 games against the Nationals. In addition to adding some pieces, the Phillies should also benefit from the fact that the Cardinals and Giants didn’t do all that much to upgrade their chances to catch Philadelphia in the postseason hunt.

Here are the updated odds for the 2022 World Series after the Trade Deadline (via FanDuel):

2022 World Series odds post-trade deadline

Team Odds Implied Probability
New York Yankees +330 23.3%
Los Angeles Dodgers +350 22.2%
Houston Astros +400 20%
New York Mets +600 14.3%
San Diego Padres +1000 9.1%
Atlanta Braves +1200 7.7%
Toronto Blue Jays +1500 6.3%
Milwaukee Brewers +3000 3.2%
St. Louis Cardinals +3500 2.8%
Seattle Mariners +3500 2.8%
Minnesota Twins +4000 2.4%
Chicago White Sox +4500 2.2%
Tampa Bay Rays +5000 2%
Philadelphia Phillies +5500 1.8%
Cleveland Guardians +7500 1.3%
Boston Red Sox +10000 1%
San Francisco Giants +15000 0.7%
Baltimore Orioles +50000 0.2%

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