The events unfolding in Russia resemble scenes from the next James Bond movie: Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the former chef of Vladimir Putin, ex-cyberhacker, and recent leader of a mercenary army, embarks on a rogue mission. Prigozhin leads a convoy of ex-convicts and soldiers of fortune, creating chaos on their journey to seize the Russian capital. Surprisingly, they meet little resistance, even stopping to buy coffee, leading to amusing internet photos of mercenaries waiting in line with tanks. However, just as they approach Moscow, Prigozhin realizes they are vulnerable to air attacks and abruptly calls off the operation, opting for a plea bargain arranged by the president of Belarus.
It remains uncertain whether Putin himself issued a direct threat to Prigozhin, but Prigozhin, as Putin’s former associate, decides not to take any chances. The Belarusian president reveals that Putin expressed a desire to eliminate Prigozhin, comparing it to squashing a bug. Putin, akin to the notorious Bond villain Ernst Stavro Blofeld, often appears at a long white table, giving visitors a sense of impending danger.
Witnessing these unfolding events, one can’t help but wonder if it’s all real. This Mutiny on the Moskva script is reminiscent of a spy movie, with Putin struggling to keep up on state-run Russian TV while Prigozhin outmaneuvers him digitally on Telegram.
The future of Putin remains uncertain, but we should not dismiss him too quickly. Like Blofeld who appeared in six Bond movies before his demise, Putin is a resilient figure. For now, the focus should be on analyzing the different balances of power at play in this story and predicting future actions.
One balance of power that must be acknowledged is the significant role played by President Biden. His broad coalition against Putin in Ukraine has exposed Putin’s weaknesses and shattered his facade of invincibility. Fear and money have been Putin’s tools of control, but with Prigozhin’s mutiny and Ukraine’s counteroffensive, fear may be dissipating in Moscow. This opens the door for potential challengers.
However, we must consider Putin’s relationship with the rest of the world, as his weakness can be as dangerous as his strength. As the West, we have much to fear from a destabilized Putin. The situation in Ukraine is far from resolved, and Putin’s strategy seems to be to exhaust Ukrainian forces, wait for Western allies to tire, or strike a deal under a new Trump presidency. This strategy, while not absurd, relies on logistics and timing.
The Ukrainian Army is facing challenges as they transition from their initial successful strategy to a heavier, more conventional approach. The battlefield will determine whether this shift is effective. Additionally, one should not underestimate the courage of Ukrainians but also recognize their exhaustion as a society.
A Putin defeat, while seemingly desirable, poses its own set of risks. The absence of a clear successor means uncertainty and the potential for someone worse to take power. Prigozhin’s hypothetical presence in the Kremlin, commanding Russia’s nuclear arsenal, is a terrifying thought. The worst-case scenario could result in disorder, civil war, and the division of Russia into warlord-controlled territories.
In conclusion, the events in Russia evoke the excitement of a James Bond movie. Balances of power, both internal and external, are shifting, and the outcome remains unpredictable. As observers, we must analyze the situation carefully and be prepared for various outcomes in the coming months.
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