President Vladimir Putin demonstrated a surprising level of vulnerability on Saturday as he backed down from his initial threat of revenge after an “armed mutiny.” This compromise may have saved his regime for the time being, but it will ultimately contribute to the unraveling of Russia as a great power, which will be Putin’s true legacy.
The deal struck between Putin and renegade militia leader Yevgeniy Prigozhin is likely to be a temporary truce at best. Prigozhin, along with his mutinous soldiers, will head to Belarus in a deal brokered by President Alexander Lukashenko, in exchange for dropping charges against them, according to Kremlin spokesperson Dimitry Peskov.
Initially, Prigozhin’s march with his 25,000-man Wagner militia towards Moscow seemed like a real coup. They moved through Rostov-on-Don, Russia’s Ukrainian command headquarters, and Voronezh. Despite roadblocks put up by the Russian FSB, their movement was relatively unhindered. In response, Putin called up the National Guard to defend Moscow.
At this critical juncture, both Putin and Prigozhin decided to back down rather than risk further escalation. Putin recognized the limited options he had and understood the potential for a chaotic and uncontrollable situation. This pragmatic decision-making saved him from a potentially disastrous confrontation.
It is important to note that Putin’s ability to defuse this crisis without major military confrontation is commendable. He may have been humbled by his headstrong crony, but he remains in control. This event was a close call rather than a total defeat.
Despite his often caricatured image, Putin possesses an unusual talent for authoritarian rule. He has a stoic and composed demeanor, refusing to involve himself in petty quarrels. However, Saturday was different. By evoking memories of the 1917 strikes, Putin tapped into Russian insecurities and nationalistic pride.
In response to the situation in Russia, the Biden administration followed the adage of “never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” They focused on engaging with allies and partners, ensuring that the crisis did not escalate further.
Moving forward, Putin is likely to face more challenges, particularly in Ukraine. Prigozhin’s admission that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was unnecessary and a mistake of epic proportions underscores the burning truth of Putin’s Ukraine disaster. Even the “ice man” cannot freeze the consequences of this misstep.
Overall, Putin’s decision to compromise instead of pursuing revenge shows his vulnerability and reinforces the notion that Russia is slowly unraveling as a global power.
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