Gabriel Pasquini, an accomplished Argentine journalist and fiction writer, has made significant contributions to the literary world. With two published novels, three co-authored nonfiction books, and numerous works as an editor and translator, Pasquini has established himself as a prominent figure in the industry.
The recent assassination of Ecuadoran presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in Quito marks a disturbing development in the ongoing conflict between gangs and what former president Rafael Correa referred to as a “failed state”. Villavicencio, targeted and shot multiple times after a political rally, tragically adds to the list of casualties in a country plagued by extreme violence. These criminal organizations not only settle scores through brutality but also utilize terror as a means of communication with society as a whole, effectively exerting control through fear.
Experts predict that homicide rates, which already surpassed 25 per 100,000 in 2022, may escalate further this year. Street shootings, car bombings, and public displays of corpses have become distressingly common as various gangs fight for dominance and territorial control. Corrupt law enforcement officials have, unfortunately, turned a blind eye to this issue.
However, even in a country desensitized to such shocking acts of violence, the assassination of a presidential candidate just days before national elections is particularly unsettling. President Guillermo Lasso, whose impeachment led to snap elections, has labeled this a political crime. He attributes the rampant violence to organized crime, which his administration has thus far been unable to contain. This failure is not isolated; Ecuador has struggled to recover from the pandemic, and approximately 25 percent of its population lives in poverty.
Bordered by Peru and Colombia, major cocaine producers, Ecuador has long served as a transit route for drug exports to Europe, the United States, and Australia. The power vacuum within Ecuador’s borders has allowed local gangs to establish connections with Mexican and Colombian cartels, empowering them to dominate urban areas. Extortion payments, known as “vacunas,” serve as a major source of funding for their criminal activities.
While the Lasso administration has made efforts to incarcerate gang leaders, controlling the prisons themselves has proven to be a significant challenge. Gangs have effectively taken over these correctional facilities, leading to at least 14 massacres since 2021. Last month, seven prisons experienced riots, claiming the lives of 31 individuals. Around the same time, Agustín Intriago, the mayor of Manta, was assassinated while inspecting a building. Like Villavicencio, he had a special security detail due to death threats he had received.
These events unraveled as various individuals partook in a sordid plot that adhered to no rules. Following the July riots, José Adolfo Macías Villamar, also known as Fito and the head of the powerful gang Los Choneros, publicly called for a “mob peace” from prison. Other gang leaders echoed this sentiment in video messages. One anonymous leader, hidden behind a hood, expressed gratitude to Interior Minister Juan Zapata for entertaining the notion of a peace dialogue.
The Ecuadoran press accused Lasso of favoring an agreement that would have granted Los Choneros control over the prisons. However, Lasso vehemently denied any ongoing negotiations with the gangs.
Negotiating truces with criminal organizations is not a new concept in Ecuador. The Correa administration began legalizing certain gangs in 2007, resulting in a significant decrease in homicides per 100,000 people from 16 to 6 by 2016. Last year, former Interior Minister Patricio Carrillo even proposed “self-regulation” as a means to contain the violence, effectively suggesting making deals with the gangs. Carrillo continued advocating for this approach as recently as May, stating that Los Choneros were able to contain violence as a dominant group. He proposed searching for self-regulating mechanisms that had proven successful in cities like Cali, Medellín, and Tijuana.
However, negotiating with criminal organizations often leads to increased competition, both between and within gangs. Truces can be betrayed to harm the leader who agreed to them, or as a signal to the government that other groups want equal treatment or better terms.
The relevant precedent to consider in this situation is El Salvador. From 2012 to 2014, the Salvadoran government engaged in secret negotiations with the feared maras gangs, resulting in a temporary decline in homicides. However, one of the gangs broke the agreement after two years, causing the homicide rate to soar to 103 per 100,000 people. El Salvador’s current president, Nayib Bukele, also attempted negotiations with the maras as the mayor of San Salvador and later as the country’s leader. Unfortunately, the outcome remained the same, with increased massacres and violence. Eventually, the breakdown in the truce led to Bukele adopting a strategy of authoritarianism, abandoning the failing democratic system.
Shortly after Lasso’s denial of ongoing negotiations with gangs, Villavicencio, a prominent whistleblower on mafia connections to political power, received threatening messages from Los Choneros leader Fito. A week later, Villavicencio was killed, possibly by Los Choneros or someone seeking to falsely attribute the crime to them. Ecuador finds itself in this precarious new reality. Videos surfaced showing individuals claiming to be members of the Los Lobos gang, asserting responsibility for the assassination. These claims were subsequently debunked. Authorities detained six Colombian citizens suspected of being hired to carry out the hit. The shooter, who died in police custody from his own injuries, had a tattoo associated with the Latin Kings.
In response to Villavicencio’s death, Lasso declared a state of emergency, suspending constitutional liberties. Will Ecuador follow in El Salvador’s footsteps, sacrificing freedom for safety? Will the country attempt a risky alliance with criminal forces, as El Salvadorans have unsuccessfully done? Or is there room for an alternative policy—something yet to be imagined—that could help Ecuador overcome its deep-rooted political polarization?
These are the weighty decisions that the victor of the upcoming elections, just a little over a week away, will be forced to confront.
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