RIGA, Latvia — A massive exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh has sparked outrage and accusations of betrayal towards Russia. Refugees claim that Russian peacekeepers, who were sent to protect the region, failed to fulfill their duties. President Vladimir Putin had promised that Russian peacekeepers would ensure the safety of the local population and maintain a ceasefire. However, Azerbaijan’s swift military operation to regain control of Nagorno-Karabakh exposed Russia’s inability to protect the region.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has warned that the entire population of Nagorno-Karabakh, approximately 120,000 people, would leave, accusing Azerbaijan of “ethnic cleansing.” Despite Azerbaijan’s insistence that residents can stay, many are fleeing due to a lack of trust after decades of war.
By Friday, 93,000 Karabakh Armenians had arrived in Armenia, comprising more than 77 percent of the estimated population of the region. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, denied Russia’s responsibility for the exodus, claiming that people are “willing to leave” with no direct reason for doing so. However, this statement disregards the history of war and ethnic violence in the region.
Analysts attribute Russia’s failure to the distraction caused by its war in Ukraine, which has diminished its authority and influence in neighboring regions. Additionally, Turkey’s emergence as a powerful military backer for Azerbaijan has further weakened Russia’s sway. Some analysts and officials believe that Russia’s betrayal of Armenia is a deliberate shift to accommodate Azerbaijan and Turkey, possibly as punishment for Armenia’s search for new Western partners.
The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh marks the end of its three-decade quest for statehood. When Armenia gained control of the region in the 1990s, hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis were displaced, leading to decades of conflict. In 2020, Azerbaijan, armed with advanced weapons from Israel and Turkey, launched an attack on Armenia, resulting in Armenia’s defeat.
The Russia-brokered truce allowed for the deployment of Russian peacekeepers, but the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh and its Armenian residents remains uncertain. Putin’s failure to protect Armenia, a long-time ally, is seen as a significant shift in his efforts to re-establish Russia’s dominance in its former Soviet neighbors. This failure has eroded trust in Russia among small nations on its borders, questioning its reliability as a partner in the future.
As Nagorno-Karabakh empties out, the Russian peacekeepers will soon have no mission. However, the broken trust between Armenia and Russia could have long-lasting repercussions. The people of Nagorno-Karabakh are not only angry at Russia but also feel ignored by the world. For the past 10 months, Azerbaijan had blocked the Lachin Corridor, causing food shortages. The lack of support from the international community has led to frustration and a sense of abandonment among the residents.
Armenia’s long-standing dependence on Russia has limited its options for finding realistic partners. When Armenia sought economic agreements with the European Union, Russia saw it as a threat and warned of consequences. Armenia dropped the deals under pressure from Russia. The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), of which Armenia is a member, failed to provide any help when Armenia came under threat.
Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan has been critical of Putin’s leadership, while also seeking closer ties with the West. Putin’s disdain for Pashinyan is evident, and the recent events in Nagorno-Karabakh have only deepened the divide between the two leaders.
Overall, the failure of Russia to protect Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh has caused widespread anger and distrust. Many Armenians feel betrayed by Russia, and the international community’s lack of action has further exacerbated their sense of isolation. The consequences of this rupture in trust will likely be felt for years to come.
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