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Watch this captivating map animation that showcases the movement of the jet stream and temperature across the northern hemisphere from July 17 to 23. The animation has been created by Noaa Cartography and Steven Bernard in collaboration with FT.
Climate Change Spurs Simultaneous Heatwaves and Flooding Across Multiple Regions
Scientists have discovered that the ongoing heatwaves and flooding incidents in the United States, Europe, and Asia share a common cause: the jet stream pattern. This pattern, responsible for driving global weather systems, has been characterized by five U-shaped bends, known as “wavenumber 5.” These bends create “heat domes” in the areas situated south of them. As the hot air gets trapped within the dome and is pushed downward, temperatures rise significantly. Many regions have been enduring the relentless effects of these heat domes for approximately a month now. Jennifer Francis, a scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, explains that these regions are suffering greatly due to the prolonged presence of these heat domes.
Scientists are currently investigating whether this fast-moving air band, which governs mid-latitude weather patterns, is undergoing changes that result in more frequent and persistent heatwaves and rainfall events. According to the World Meteorological Organization, June was the hottest month on record globally, with the first week of July following suit as the hottest week. Several national meteorological agencies have reported record-breaking temperatures, including the scorching 52.2°C in Xinjiang, China, and the 41.8°C in Rome, Italy.
Last year, similar instances of simultaneous heatwaves occurred in the US, Europe, and China, during a period when the wavenumber 5 pattern was present. Scientists are certain that extreme weather events will become more regular and severe as climate change continues to accelerate. With the global temperatures already risen by at least 1.1°C since pre-industrial times, understanding how climate change affects the behavior of the jet stream remains a complex task. Therefore, researchers are diligently working to unravel the connection between these two phenomena and determine the implications for future weather patterns.
Cathryn Birch, a professor of meteorology and climate at the University of Leeds, explains that the variability and positioning of the jet stream are normal occurrences. Therefore, it is challenging to determine whether climate change has influenced its behavior. It is essential to note that, while heatwaves can transpire without the presence of the wavenumber 5 pattern, it accelerates their occurrence by creating a series of heat domes. Additionally, these domes can further intensify since dry, hot ground heats up faster due to the absence of evaporating moisture that normally cools the atmosphere. Human-induced climate change exacerbates these conditions as average global temperatures are higher than they would be naturally. Currently, marine heatwaves in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans are also contributing to the problem by releasing heat into the atmosphere.
Scientists predict that this year and the next will witness abnormally high temperatures due to the developing El Niño weather phenomenon, characterized by warmer Pacific Ocean surface temperatures. However, the full impact of El Niño is expected to manifest in the coming months as the phenomenon strengthens. Looking ahead, researchers anticipate that the wavy jet stream pattern will persist into August, though it may shift in terms of pattern or location. This shift would influence which regions are affected by heat domes and increased rainfall. For instance, in June, a slightly different jet stream position led to unusually hot temperatures in the UK and heavy rainfall in Europe. Regions between heat domes, such as parts of the US and South Korea in July, may experience sudden rainfall and flash floods.
Paul Davies, chief meteorologist at the UK’s Met Office, suggests that significant energy, such as that generated by tropical thunderstorms, is required to disrupt the wavenumber 5 pattern. This pattern is less common in the winter months in the northern hemisphere, as the atmosphere contains higher energy levels due to storms, enabling the jet stream to pass through potential wave formations.
There are indications that the jet stream pattern might undergo further shifts and changes, potentially forming a wavenumber 6, which would introduce an additional U-shaped bend. Davies asserts that the climate is a significant factor in these shifts. Climate Capital, the FT’s dedicated coverage of the intersection of climate change, business, markets, and politics, provides comprehensive information on this topic.
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