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Imprisoning a small percentage of the adult population has unexpectedly gained popularity, both domestically and internationally. In El Salvador, President Nayib Bukele has sent nearly 70,000 individuals to jail as part of a strict campaign against gangs, under a state of exception he imposed last March and has yet to lift.
Despite concerns about the violation of civil liberties, due process, and human rights, this approach is increasingly seen as a model for neighboring countries. After the gang-related massacre of 46 female prisoners, Honduras has also implemented a similar crackdown, and other governments are considering folowing suit. Pro-Bukele marches have even taken place in Guatemala. “Copy it, as simple as that,” commented a mayor in Ecuador on El Salvador’s tactics following a bomb attack in her city.
It’s no surprise that politicians want to emulate this strategy, as Mr. Bukele and his crackdown have approval ratings ranging from 80% to 90%. While some question the accuracy of these figures due to his tight control over the country, the widespread support for his policies is undeniable. The murder rate, which reached an alarming 107 per 100,000 people in 2015, making El Salvador one of the most dangerous countries in the world, has now dropped to just 7.8 per 100,000. Even longtime critics admit that extortion has significantly decreased, and many communities that once lived in fear now enjoy the freedom to live without threat. However, it’s important to acknowledge that innocent individuals have paid a high price for this campaign, with at least 153 deaths occurring.
Some may argue that this is a justifiable sacrifice. However, even when solely focusing on the outcomes, the situation is more complex than it initially appears. Critics note that the murder rate has been decreasing steadily since 2015, with most of the decline happening prior to Mr. Bukele’s presidency in 2019. They claim that the president engaged in behind-the-scenes negotiations with two major criminal organizations, Mara Salvatrucha and Barrio 18, and believe that the surge in violence in early 2022, which led to the state of exception, was a result of the gangs feeling betrayed by the government.
Furthermore, critics argue that the reduction in crime is not sustainable, and history supports their concerns. Previous hardline approaches in the region have ended poorly, leading to increases in criminal activity. These tactics fail to address the root causes of issues such as poverty and discrimination. Instead, they foster resentment and facilitate the recruitment and radicalization of individuals who are not yet involved in gangs. Many of the criminal organizations that now terrorize parts of Latin America originated within prison walls.
As one critic points out, the true success story here is not the eradication of gangs, but rather the consolidation of Mr. Bukele’s power. He even referred to himself as “the coolest dictator in the world” in response to criticism. In February 2020, he marched soldiers into parliament to demand security funding. After gaining a supermajority in parliament the following year, he dismissed the attorney general and five members of the supreme court’s constitutional chamber.
It is widely assumed that the popularity of his crackdown will ensure his reelection next year, even though numerous experts argue that this would violate the country’s constitution. What worries opponents, scholars, lawyers, and civil society the most is what he may do with renewed authority. “Bukelismo” should not be admired or imitated.
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