Support for Nikki Haley Surges in Iowa Caucus State
The race for second place in Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucus state is heating up, with Nikki Haley pulling even with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, according to a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll. However, former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the race, maintaining a 27-percentage point lead despite his legal troubles.
The poll shows that 43% of likely Republican caucusgoers choose Trump as their first choice for president, up from 42% in the previous poll conducted in August. Haley and DeSantis are tied for second place at 16%, with DeSantis experiencing a 3-percentage point drop and Haley seeing a significant 10-point jump.
Recent clashes between Haley and DeSantis over their approach to the Israel-Hamas war have taken center stage, diverting attention away from Trump. Both candidates have intensified their campaigns in Iowa as Caucus Day on Jan. 15 approaches.
Independent voters and suburbanites are rallying behind Haley, contributing to her rise in the polls. She has doubled her support among independents, currently leading Trump and DeSantis with 33% and 12%, respectively. Among independents, Haley has seen her support increase from 10% to 22%.
Haley also holds an advantage over DeSantis in terms of demographic support. She leads among suburban respondents at 32%, compared to DeSantis’ 29% and Trump’s 24%. She also leads among college graduates, men 65 and older, white women with a college degree, and women 44 and younger. However, DeSantis leads among men under the age of 45.
While Haley has gained ground in the polls, Trump still maintains a loyal following. His support remains solid across various demographics, and his supporters are more enthusiastic about their choice compared to Haley and DeSantis supporters. Among likely caucusgoers, 47% of Trump supporters are extremely enthusiastic about him, compared to 25% of DeSantis supporters and 19% of Haley supporters.
Trump’s support also remains firm, with 63% of his supporters saying their minds are made up. In contrast, 54% of likely Republican caucusgoers have a first choice but are open to being persuaded to support another candidate.
In this crowded field of candidates, Haley has done the best job of differentiating herself as the non-Trump candidate, with very few Trump supporters considering her as a second choice.
The poll was conducted from Oct. 22-26 and surveyed 404 likely Republican caucusgoers, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
In summary, while Nikki Haley has seen her support surge in Iowa, Donald Trump maintains a dominant lead in the race. Haley’s rise among independents and suburbanites has propelled her into a second-place tie with Ron DeSantis. However, Trump’s hold on his supporters remains strong, with higher enthusiasm and firm support compared to Haley and DeSantis. The battle for second place continues to be intense as the race to the Iowa Caucus unfolds.
