When President Vladimir V. Putin addressed the rebellion in Moscow and blamed the United States for supporting it, President Biden and his national security team were not surprised. However, they had already taken steps to counter Putin’s claims.
In his initial response to the uprising, President Biden emphasized the importance of gathering key allies on a video call to ensure that Putin had no grounds to blame the West or NATO. He firmly stated that the United States had no involvement in the conflict, emphasizing that it was an internal struggle within the Russian system.
While there is no evidence to suggest U.S. involvement in the uprising, Putin’s arguments may gain traction in the coming weeks. The upcoming NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, located near the Belarus border where Putin plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, could further fuel his claims of a Western plot against Russia. The summit’s main focus is Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, which was one of the factors behind Putin’s invasion of the country last year.
Anticipating and undermining Russian information operations has been a key aspect of President Biden’s strategy since the start of the Ukrainian war. The President even declassified intelligence in 2021, against the objections of some intelligence agencies, to expose Putin’s plans to invade Ukraine. The U.S. has also worked to gather evidence of Russian war crimes in Bucha and to prevent potential incidents at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, occupied by Russian forces.
As the uprising led by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin unfolded, the White House realized it had to preempt Putin’s inevitable argument that the crisis served Russia’s adversaries. Therefore, President Biden and his allies settled on a common argument that Putin created this crisis through his ill-advised decision to invade a sovereign neighbor.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken emphasized the reversal of fortune for Russia, highlighting how they almost captured Kyiv, but are now defending Moscow against mercenaries created by Putin himself. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, while acknowledging the events as an internal Russian matter, attributed them to the strategic mistake of Putin’s illegal annexation of Crimea and the war against Ukraine.
President Biden, however, refrained from openly supporting the uprising. He did not want to endorse Prigozhin, a sanctioned mercenary leader. Additionally, the White House was cautious not to appear as alleviating Putin’s difficulties. They have been monitoring any signs of fissures in Putin’s hold on power and, now that they have found one, they are uncertain of the outcome.
President Biden acknowledged the need to assess the implications of the weekend’s events on Russia and Ukraine but stated that it’s too early to make definitive conclusions. The ultimate outcome of this situation remains uncertain.
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