Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister, made his first appearance since an attempted coup by Yevgeny Prigozhin. The brief video showed Shoigu studying a battlefield map, but did not reveal his location. The failed coup has left both Shoigu and Valery Gerasimov, the commander of Russia’s invasion force, vulnerable and raises questions about their future in office. Analysts believe that Putin now faces a difficult decision to either fire the generals or let them continue leading the faltering invasion. Loyalty and stability are crucial to Putin, but keeping Shoigu and Gerasimov in power poses risks to both the war effort and Putin’s regime. Prigozhin has been critical of Shoigu and Gerasimov, blaming them for military failures in Ukraine. Speculation suggests that their removal may have been part of a deal brokered with Prigozhin. The coup has damaged Russia’s prestige and called into question the country’s authority. If Shoigu and Gerasimov are forced out, it would mark a dramatic fall for both men. Shoigu, Russia’s longest-serving minister, has had his family’s fame and business dealings come under scrutiny in recent years. Gerasimov has been criticized for his brutal tactics in Ukraine. Prigozhin’s popularity has grown due to his criticism of the military leadership. The attempted coup was triggered by Shoigu’s move to make Wagner sign contracts with the defense ministry, which Prigozhin vehemently refused. Putin’s mistake was not finding a way for Prigozhin to save face after supporting Shoigu. With Prigozhin in exile, Shoigu’s position may even be strengthened as Putin will not want to fire a loyalist.
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