When Jimmy Buffi was conducting his research at Northwestern, his main focus was on the risk of injury in pitchers. As a senior analyst with a doctorate in biomechanical engineering, Buffi wanted to understand the distribution of stress on a pitcher’s elbow while throwing a baseball. His goal was to advise teams on how to keep their pitchers healthy. However, when he joined the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015, Buffi quickly realized that winning was the top priority, not injury prevention.
Buffi shared this story while analyzing recent starter usage in college baseball. He highlighted the cases of Paul Skenes and Quinn Mathews, who both threw complete games with high pitch counts. The question of whether they should have pitched that much, and the potential injury risks involved, sparked a debate among those in the sport. However, there are multiple factors to consider, including future prospects for Skenes and Mathews, who are expected to become professionals soon.
Opinions on the matter vary. Ben Brewster, a pitcher and founder of a pitching facility, acknowledges the heightened injury risk but also recognizes the importance of winning. Josiah Gray, a pitcher for the Washington Nationals, emphasizes the need for someone to look after the player’s well-being. Dan Latham, a pitching coach, points out that not all pitches are equal in terms of fatigue and injury risk. Buffi himself counters the common notion of pitch counts by highlighting the importance of context, recovery, and individual differences.
At the major league level, pitch counts are often limited due to statistical analysis and the desire to avoid facing a lineup multiple times. This shift in starter usage has coincided with increased concerns about arm injuries and a data-driven approach to the game. While there is no agreed-upon upper limit for pitch counts, guidelines suggest that 120 pitches should be the maximum for pitchers between the ages of 19 and 22. The risk of elbow ligament injury rises with higher pitch counts, as the ligament absorbs more stress as the muscles tire.
Recovery and preparation become crucial in managing pitch counts. Mathews, for example, had built up his workload throughout the season, but his 156-pitch outing raised concerns. Skenes also had a history of high pitch counts in his starts. College pitchers typically have more recovery time between starts compared to their major league counterparts. Gradual build-up and adaptation to stress are essential in minimizing injury risk.
In conclusion, there is no one-size-fits-all approach to determining pitch counts and managing injury risk in pitchers. It requires a careful balance between winning and player health, taking into account individual factors, recovery, and preparation.
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