Human nature presents challenges when it comes to facts versus feelings. Sometimes, individuals have a strong belief in something, and when they witness reinforcing evidence, they tend to ignore conflicting information. Untangling the truth when evidence points in different directions can be difficult.
Belief: The Jaguars’ offense will excel in fantasy football.
Reinforcement: Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne, and Trevor Lawrence performed well in Week 1, confirming our beliefs about the Jags.
Conflict: The past three weeks.
Conclusion: It’s advisable to bench Lawrence until he consistently puts up good numbers, but the Madman still believes it will happen.
If you don’t have better bench options, Etienne and Ridley can still be reliable flex plays, even with lower standards.
At times, individuals strongly believe in something but encounter overwhelming evidence that challenges their belief. How do you reconcile this conflicting information?
Belief: The Bears’ offense will be productive in fantasy football.
Conflict: Justin Fields, DJ Moore, and the Chicago offense performed poorly in the first three games.
Belated reinforcement: The Bears matched our initial expectations in Week 4 against the Broncos.
Conclusion: The one good game was an anomaly, not the three bad ones. This belief is reinforced by the fact that the good game came against a defense that had given up 70 points the previous week.
Keep your primary Bears players on the bench, but don’t drop Khalil Herbert yet. We still believe he can become the main Bears RB, and even if his efficiency is not as expected, he could still get enough volume.
Betting on the NFL?
There are times when extensive historical evidence supports a belief, but then contradictory evidence starts to emerge. At what point should you shift your mindset?
Belief: The Bengals are a good team.
History: The Bengals have been successful.
New evidence: The Bengals are not performing well.
Conclusion: Multiple factors could contribute to the decline, such as Joe Burrow’s calf injury, unresolved issues with the offensive line, or player apathy. It could be a combination of these factors or something completely different.
The Bengals may be struggling, but it’s too soon to give up on Ja’Marr Chase. Bench the rest of your Bengals players, though.
Overall conclusion: Make sure to consider all the evidence when making fantasy football decisions.
Believe it!
C.J. Stroud QB, Texans
If he’s available in your league, this could be your last chance to pick him up during the waiver period.
David Montgomery RB, Lions
He’s clearly going to be the main running back, with Jahmyr Gibbs serving as a change-of-pace and third-down option. Start Montgomery every week or explore trade opportunities.
Michael Wilson WR, Cardinals
He has consistently performed well over the past three weeks, and the Cardinals offense is better than expected.
Jameson Williams WR, Lions
His suspension was reduced, making him eligible to return in Week 5. Although he may not immediately make a big impact, he should become a viable fantasy option in the coming weeks due to the Lions’ explosive offense.
… Or not!
Isiah Pacheco RB, Chiefs
He had a good game against the Jets, but the Chiefs’ backfield is crowded, and he’s unlikely to consistently dominate. Consider trading him or using him as a bye-week filler.
Brandon Aiyuk WR, 49ers
The 49ers have many offensive weapons, and Aiyuk’s production may decline as a result. Take advantage of his strong start and explore trade possibilities.
Nico Collins WR, Texans
While he has had a couple of great games, we anticipate more inconsistent performances. Gauge trade interest while his value is high.
Kyle Pitts TE, Falcons
We don’t believe that Jonnu Smith’s good performance should overshadow Pitts’ lackluster performance. Based on his track record, it’s unlikely that Pitts will improve significantly. Feel free to drop him.
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