Updated at 10:50 a.m. ET on June 13, 2023
Over the past six years, California has experienced three of its deadliest fires in history and eight of its largest. The consequences have been devastating, with over 100 deaths, numerous displacements, and millions exposed to harmful air pollution that we still don’t fully comprehend.
While we understand that climate change intensifies these fires by creating drier conditions, quantifying the exact impact is challenging. Fire science is a complex field, as fires can be triggered by various factors such as lightning strikes, hot cars on dry grass, or snapped power lines. However, a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences sheds light on the relationship between human-caused warming and wildfires in California. The study reveals that climate change is responsible for nearly all the increase in burned areas during the state’s summer fires over the past 50 years. Furthermore, the researchers predict that this trend will continue to worsen in the coming decades. This study serves as a timely reminder, particularly after the recent toxic haze experienced by the East Coast, which originated from Canada. It highlights that wildfires are an international problem that will likely escalate over time.
To understand the correlation between wildfire and climate, the researchers analyzed data from 1971 to 2021 and constructed a model. They then simulated scenarios with and without climate change, enabling them to isolate the impact of human-caused warming. The findings demonstrate that human-induced climate change is responsible for almost all the additional area burned during wildfires.
This research aligns with a previous modeling paper by one of the study’s authors, which revealed that human-caused climate change nearly doubled the amount of forest burned in the American West between 1984 and 2015. Another study found that anthropogenic climate change accounted for half of the increase in fire weather in France’s Mediterranean region.
The present study contributes further evidence to the existing body of knowledge. It falls under the category of climate-attribution research, aiming to elucidate the impact of climate change on environmental shifts and specific weather events like wildfires, hurricanes, and rising sea levels. Experts emphasize that this type of analysis provides accurate insights into different factors, thus aiding in future planning. Nathan Gillett, a climate-attribution scientist working for Environment and Climate Change Canada, stated that without such comprehensive analyses, it would be challenging to determine the relative roles of climatic and non-climatic factors in driving changes in wildfires.
Unfortunately, researchers predict that the number of acres burned by summer fires in California will continue to rise in the years ahead, despite the significant amount already destroyed.
Presently, California is experiencing a temporary climate respite as the number of acres burned so far this year is below average, partly due to the recent rainfall. Conversely, Canada is facing an exceptionally severe wildfire season. This year ranks as the country’s third-worst in at least a decade, and it is still early in the season. Piyush Jain, a research scientist at the Canadian Forest Service and a professor at the University of Alberta, noted the extensive burning occurring across multiple regions, deviating from the typical concentration in the west. On May 11, Canada escalated its fire-preparedness scale to Level 5, the highest severity level, marking the earliest occurrence in history.
The current fires in Canada predominantly affect boreal forests, characterized by extremely cold northern climates. While factors like forest management and human activities also contribute to the fires, scientists will subsequently investigate the specific factors involved. Nevertheless, until studies like the one released today are conducted, we cannot precisely quantify the extent of climate change’s influence. However, regardless of its impact on individual events, climate change continues to increase the risk and severity of future wildfire seasons.
Denial of responsibility! VigourTimes is an automatic aggregator of Global media. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, and all materials to their authors. For any complaint, please reach us at – [email protected]. We will take necessary action within 24 hours.
