New calculations reveal that severe rainstorms, fueled by climate change, are increasing the risk of infrastructure failures that protect millions of Americans from flooding. These calculations, which analyze expected precipitation in every county and locality in the contiguous United States, show that around one in nine residents of the lower 48 states are at significant risk of downpours that exceed the drainage capacity of local systems.
Chad Berginnis, the executive director of the Association of State Floodplain Managers, describes the data as startling and emphasizes the need for action in response to these alarming findings. The non-profit research group, First Street Foundation, released these rain estimates, highlighting the implications for homeowners who face flood risks but are not required to purchase flood insurance.
With plans to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and ports, the nation must address the outdated standards used in these projects. Matthew Eby, the executive director of First Street Foundation, hopes that this new data can guide future investments and prevent the waste of trillions of dollars on infrastructure that does not account for the intensifying effects of climate change.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the agency responsible for providing precipitation estimates used by planners and engineers, declined to comment on these calculations. However, the NOAA’s estimates assume that extreme rain has not increased in recent decades, despite evidence pointing to the contrary.
First Street’s calculations reveal that NOAA underestimates the risk of severe rain in cities such as Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington. Conversely, some areas, including parts of California and the Mountain West, find NOAA’s estimates to overestimate the likelihood of intense rain.
NOAA’s current estimates, found in the Atlas 14 publication, rely on precipitation data collected over the past several decades or even longer, while First Street’s estimates only use rainfall records from this century. First Street’s methods, which will be published on July 31, offer a more accurate picture of future precipitation patterns. NOAA plans to update its estimates in Atlas 15, but it may not be available until 2026.
These rain estimates also raise concerns about the federal government’s guidance on flood risks to homes. FEMA’s maps, which determine whether homeowners need to purchase flood insurance, only cover properties in a 100-year flood zone—the areas calculated to have a 1 percent chance of flooding in any given year. However, First Street’s data indicates that many more properties are at risk in a 100-year event, suggesting that homeowners may not be fully aware of the risks they face.
FEMA acknowledges outside efforts to improve understanding of flood risk but emphasizes that First Street’s assessments differ from their own data and methods. However, the accuracy of flood data is crucial for the nation’s largest flood insurance and regulatory land use programs.
This discrepancy in rainfall estimates also highlights the outdated standards used in infrastructure. Even with NOAA’s publication of Atlas 14 in 2004, many drainage systems and stormwater basins were designed based on outdated information. The magnitude of this problem is immense, as trillions of dollars have been invested in infrastructure that does not reflect current climate conditions. Updating Atlas 14 is a necessary step, but it is just the beginning of addressing this widespread issue.
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