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In June, Toyota unveiled an ambitious battery strategy at its research facility near Mount Fuji, aiming to sell 3.5 million electric vehicles by 2030 and introduce solid-state battery technology in an electric vehicle by 2027.
However, these ambitions highlight the challenges faced by Toyota and corporate Japan in meeting their EV targets while reducing reliance on China for crucial battery supplies. China currently dominates the EV and battery supply chain, producing 68% of the world’s cathodes and almost 90% of its anodes.
In 2010, China’s export embargo on rare earths served as a wake-up call for Japan, prompting efforts to reduce dependence on China for cobalt and nickel production. While Japan lacks rare earth deposits, it aims to secure necessary materials through partnerships with other countries.
Panasonic, for example, plans to diversify its supply chain to countries like Canada to mitigate risks associated with reliance on China. The Japanese Ministry for Economy, Trade and Industry anticipates a significant increase in domestic lithium-ion battery production capacity by 2030, but this requires securing large amounts of lithium, nickel, graphite, cobalt, and manganese.
Despite advancements in battery recycling and the use of recycled materials, the demand for EVs and consumer electronics surpasses the supply of recycled materials. Therefore, Japan must make strategic decisions and continue investing in disruptive technologies. Maintaining good relations with China is also crucial for managing the near-term demand and ensuring a sustainable battery supply chain.
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