By Gloria Dickie
According to research from the British Antarctic Survey, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is expected to continue melting in the coming century, regardless of efforts to reduce planet-warming emissions. This will result in further sea level rise in the coming decades.
A study published in the journal Nature Climate Change reveals that even with varying degrees of warming, the melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet will accelerate due to warmer water in the Amundsen Sea eroding the ice shelves that line the ocean.
These ice shelves serve as a barrier, preventing the flow of inland ice into the ocean. However, under the best-case scenario of a 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) increase in temperature above pre-industrial levels, the ice would melt three times faster than it did in the previous century.
“While reducing emissions can help prevent the worst-case scenario, it seems that our control over the situation is limited,” says lead author Kaitlin Naughten, an ocean-ice modeller at the British Antarctic Survey.
The collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the nine global climate ‘tipping points’ identified by scientists in 2009. The passing of these thresholds would have catastrophic consequences for life on Earth.
An international team of scientists suggests that we may have already reached the point of no return for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, with just a 1.1 Celsius increase in temperature above pre-industrial levels.
If the ice sheet were to completely melt, global sea levels would rise by more than a meter.
To assess the impact of different warming scenarios, researchers ran simulations on Britain’s national supercomputer, using a single model to evaluate changes in ocean temperatures.
“It is important to approach these results with caution as different models can yield different responses,” cautions Tiago Segabinazzi Dotto, a senior research scientist at Britain’s National Oceanography Centre, who was not involved in the study.
However, the findings align with other research indicating the imminent collapse of ice shelves in the Amundsen Sea, including the Thwaites Ice Shelf, which scientists recently reported is experiencing the intrusion of warm water into its vulnerable areas.
Climate change is taking its toll on the ice across Antarctica. This winter, Antarctic Sea ice reached its lowest maximum extent on record, and recent research shows that around 40% of the continent’s ice shelves have significantly shrunk over the past 25 years.
(Reporting by Gloria Dickie in London; Editing by Ros Russell)
