Groundbreaking Model Predicts Supercontinent Formation in 250 Million Years, Threatening Mammal Population Extinction

A recently published study in Nature Geoscience utilizes supercomputer climate models to explore the impact of a future supercontinent called Pangea Ultima on extreme temperatures. According to the study, this new supercontinent, expected to form 250 million years from now, will result in uninhabitable conditions for mammals due to the extreme temperatures.

The study, led by the University of Bristol, allows scientists to gain insights into how Earth’s climate might change naturally in the distant future, apart from human-induced climate change.

In the envisioned scenario, the Earth’s temperatures will increase significantly in 250 million years due to increased volcanism from tectonic activity and the aging sun emitting more energy and heat. While volcanoes typically moderate temperatures by releasing carbon dioxide and warming the planet, excessive volcanism leads to an overabundance of carbon dioxide, resulting in drastic temperature rises. Additionally, similar to mammals, the sun expands and produces more heat as it ages.

According to Dr. Alexander Farnsworth, a senior research associate at the University of Bristol and the study’s lead author, the emergence of the supercontinent Pangea Ultima would create a “triple whammy.” This includes the continentality effect, a hotter sun, and increased CO₂ levels in the atmosphere, resulting in extensive heat across the planet. The extreme temperatures, ranging between 40 to 50 degrees Celsius, along with high humidity, would make it nearly impossible for mammals, including humans, to survive in this environment.

The researchers used computer climate models to simulate the environmental conditions of Pangea Ultima, considering factors such as humidity, rainfall, wind, and temperature. They also determined the starting and ending levels of CO₂ based on biological, oceanic, and tectonic processes. The study reveals that only 8% to 16% of Pangea Ultima’s land mass will maintain habitable conditions for mammals. While human-induced climate change is expected to raise Earth’s temperature over time, it is predicted to remain habitable until the formation of Pangea Ultima.

Mammals, including humans, have survived on Earth for an extended period due to their adaptability to extreme weather conditions. However, while mammals have evolved to endure cold temperatures, they are unable to adapt to hotter conditions. As global temperatures continue to rise, the chances of mammal survival under these new conditions becomes increasingly unlikely.

Dr. Farnsworth states, “The outlook in the distant future appears very bleak” as carbon dioxide levels are anticipated to be double the current levels, coupled with the sun emitting 2.5% more radiation. The supercontinent primarily located in the hot and humid tropics could result in temperatures ranging from 40°C to 70°C. This research also highlights that a solar system’s “habitable zone” may not guarantee a hospitable environment for humans, depending on whether the continents are dispersed or fused into a single supercontinent.

Pangea Ultima would not be the first supercontinent to exist on Earth’s surface. Scientists estimate that there have been ten supercontinents throughout Earth’s history, with Pangea being the most well-known and recent. Plate tectonics, which involve the collision and subduction of Earth’s major and minor plates, are responsible for the formation of these supercontinents over vast geological periods.