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The French statistics office has refuted economists’ claims that a massive cruise ship was the key driver of the country’s recent economic growth. The delivery of the MSC Euribia in May resulted in a surge in French exports, which led to a better-than-expected quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 0.5%. However, the national statistics office, Insee, explained that the boost to exports was offset by a corresponding decrease in the ship’s value from French inventories. Insee also stated that the gradual increase in inventories over two years contributed to GDP growth. While the cruise ship’s high value significantly increased transport equipment exports, economists believe such contributions are erratic and unsustainable.
Mariana Monteiro, an economist at BNP Paribas, estimated that the combined contributions from the cruise ship delivery and a recovery in Airbus exports added about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to French quarterly GDP growth. However, some economists, like Jim Reid from Deutsche Bank and Claus Vistesen from Pantheon Macroeconomics, disagreed with Insee’s findings and argued that the cruise ship’s impact was a one-off boost to GDP growth. In the most recent quarter, net foreign trade added 0.7 percentage points to French GDP, while falling inventories offset only 0.1 percentage points. Insee’s deduction of the MSC Euribia’s value from inventories was partly masked by a surge in coking and refining stocks after strikes earlier in the year.
In conclusion, despite differing opinions, the cruise ship’s effect on French economic growth remains a subject of debate among economists.
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