In the realm of presidential campaigns, the traditional Iowa approach has been to travel from town to town, engaging with citizens and embracing local culinary traditions. The idea is to go everywhere and meet everyone, as this has been considered the key to winning over voters in the early Iowa caucuses, which kickstart the American presidential cycle.
However, former President Donald J. Trump is shaking up this old way of doing things. Just five months away from the 2024 caucuses, Trump maintains a comfortable lead in the polls in a state where he has rarely made an appearance. If any of his numerous challengers want to stop his quest for a third nomination, they will likely have to impede his progress in Iowa. A resounding victory by Trump could create an air of inevitability around his candidacy that would be hard to overcome.
As Trump and most of the Republican rivals converge at the Iowa State Fair, a significant event celebrating agriculture and deep-fried foods on a stick, it becomes clear that the campaign has taken on a nationalized form. Trump and his three competitors have left the rest of the field starving for attention.
Republican strategist Doug Gross emphasizes the importance of campaigning in Iowa to gain the necessary media coverage. Failing to make an impact here could be detrimental to a candidate’s chances. Gross states, “The chance to show that he’s vulnerable is gone. You’ve got to do it here, and you’ve got to do it now.”
While most Republican candidates are adhering to the traditional Iowa method, none of them enjoy the same popularity or visibility as Trump. He has visited the state only six times since announcing his campaign in November.
Interestingly, recent polling shows that although Trump maintains a lead in Iowa and nationally, his competitors still have a chance to sway his supporters. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll, 47% of Trump’s Iowa supporters said they would consider backing another candidate. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida, Trump’s closest rival, holds an advantage in Iowa due to endorsements from state legislators, a campaign team comprised of veterans from Senator Ted Cruz’s 2016 presidential bid, and a super PAC with significant financial resources. DeSantis plans to visit all 99 counties, demonstrating his dedication to reaching every potential voter.
One of DeSantis’s biggest challenges is convincing Iowans to consider an alternative to Trump. “Trump’s supporters are very vocal, so sometimes being very vocal sounds like there’s a lot of them,” says Tom Shipley, an Iowa state senator who has endorsed DeSantis. “That doesn’t necessarily mean that’s the case.”
Although DeSantis has generated interest and received positive attention at major political events in Iowa, he has yet to garner a surge of support. By the end of June, only 17 Iowans had donated $200 or more to his campaign, as reported to the Federal Election Commission. In comparison, Nikki Haley, who lags far behind in polls, had 25 Iowa donors, while Trump had 117, and former Vice President Mike Pence had just seven.
DeSantis’s supporters argue that history shows that candidates who appeal to social conservatives can make a comeback in Iowa. Past winners, such as Senator Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee, utilized the Iowa caucuses to propel themselves into one-on-one matchups with the eventual nominee, even if they didn’t secure the nomination themselves.
Those supporting candidates other than Trump caution that Iowa caucusgoers are known to be unpredictable. At this point in 2015, Cruz had only 8% support in a Des Moines Register poll, while Trump led with 23% and Ben Carson followed with 18%. “It’s a marathon, not a sprint,” says Chris Cournoyer, a Republican state senator supporting Nikki Haley.
The distinguishing factor in this Iowa campaign is that Republicans are first asking themselves a fundamental question: Trump or not Trump? In the past, Iowans may have considered a handful of top contenders, but Trump’s dominance has left the field fighting for a smaller slice of voters. The longer a large number of candidates remains, the harder it will be for someone like DeSantis to consolidate enough support to challenge Trump.
These partisan lines are reinforced by the political and media landscape focused on conservative cable news shows and online programs, rather than local Iowa news outlets. While candidates from both parties traditionally spoke at The Des Moines Register’s state fair soapbox, attracting political news media and fairgoers alike, this year only lower-polling candidates such as Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, and Vivek Ramaswamy are scheduled to appear. Instead, all the contenders, except Trump, will sit for interviews with the Republican Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa. This shift will likely reduce the potential for viral moments that used to shape political debates at the fair.
Trump’s supporters argue that he doesn’t need to engage in traditional retail politics in Iowa because he is already widely known and has a strong presence in conservative media as he faces legal challenges. “Trump can rely on the network that’s already out here,” says Stan Gustafson, a Republican state representative who supports Trump.
Nevertheless, a few Iowa Republicans who support Trump are looking beyond the upcoming caucuses. Gustafson, an endorser of Trump, reveals that he’s assessing potential candidates for the future. “It’s already put together,” he says.
Ultimately, Iowa Republicans face the choice of Trump or someone else. The battle for voters has shifted to a binary decision as Trump’s dominance overshadows other contenders. Eric Woolson, an experienced Iowa political figure who has worked for Republican candidates and now supports Governor Doug Burgum of North Dakota, remarks that the first challenge for 2024 campaigns is identifying which voters are open to candidates other than Trump. He adds, “Now there’s just such stark lines that have been drawn.”
The influence of conservative cable news and internet shows further contributes to these lines. The presidential candidates have undergone a drastic shift in terms of media coverage, moving away from local Iowa outlets and towards partisan media.
In conclusion, Iowa remains a crucial battleground for Republican presidential hopefuls. However, with Trump’s strong lead and the polarization of voters, it will be an uphill battle for any candidate looking to challenge his dominance.
Denial of responsibility! VigourTimes is an automatic aggregator of Global media. In each content, the hyperlink to the primary source is specified. All trademarks belong to their rightful owners, and all materials to their authors. For any complaint, please reach us at – [email protected]. We will take necessary action within 24 hours.
