Ukrainian officials are well aware of the challenges they face in their drive toward the Sea of Azov. They anticipate encountering minefields, fortified trenches, and heavy artillery fire from Russian armor and machine guns. Despite these obstacles, Kyiv has a clear objective in mind.
Their immediate goal is to penetrate deeper into occupied territory, bringing more Russian military targets within range. This strategy aims to disrupt Moscow’s supply lines and hinder their ability to counter Ukrainian advances. Hanna Malyar, the deputy minister of defense, emphasized the importance of weakening the enemy’s ability to defend itself on Ukrainian national television.
The Ukrainian military claims to be successfully destroying numerous Russian weapons depots each week. They are constantly searching for command posts, air defense systems, and concentrations of troops to target. However, it is challenging to independently assess Ukraine’s success in degrading Russian forces and logistical operations.
Col. Serhii Baranov of the Ukrainian military’s general staff recently claimed that Ukrainian rockets and artillery accounted for the majority of Russian losses in terms of soldiers and equipment. Brig. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavsky, the commander of Ukraine’s military in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia, likened the counteroffensive to a boxing match. Ukraine intends to leverage longer-range weapons to maintain distance from the opponent and avoid close combat.
Last year, the United States supplied Ukraine with longer-range rocket systems called HIMARS. This forced Russia to relocate its logistical operations and bases closer to the coast of the Sea of Azov, outside of the rockets’ range. Ukraine’s frontline positions were initially out of reach of the HIMARS, but with every mile gained in the current assault, they get closer to Russian targets along the coast.
While the HIMARS are mobile, Ukrainian forces have a limited number and prefer to keep them at a distance from the front line. It is crucial for Ukraine to consolidate its gains and show its ability to hold newly reclaimed territory amidst relentless Russian aerial and artillery bombardment. Analysts believe that this is necessary to significantly change the dynamics on the battlefield.
In addition to the HIMARS, Ukraine has also received other powerful Western weapons. These weapons surpass the capabilities of the long-range drones that Ukraine has used to strike Russian supply routes far from the front. One of these routes passes through Crimea, which has been illegally occupied by Russia since 2014. Ukraine has targeted the Kerch Bridge, the only land route from Russia to Crimea, multiple times during the war. Moscow has consistently blamed Ukraine for these attacks.
Furthermore, Ukraine has attacked major roads that connect Crimea to the southern Ukrainian mainland. Another vital supply route for Moscow runs through the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces are also making efforts to advance near the occupied city of Bakhmut.
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