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In the upcoming August runoff, two center-left candidates will compete for the presidency of Guatemala. However, the recent election was marred by the disqualification of four candidates and a high number of invalid ballots, making it difficult to determine a clear winner in Central America’s largest economy.
According to official results with 97% of the votes counted from Sunday’s election, former first lady Sandra Torres of the center-left UNE grouping leads with 15.6% of the vote. She is followed by former diplomat Bernardo Arévalo, the son of a former leftist president, with 11.9% of the vote.
Torres, representing the country’s largest party, expressed optimism about the results and stated her readiness to become Guatemala’s first female president.
Pre-election polls had predicted that Arévalo, the leader of the Movimiento Semilla party formed six years ago, had no chance of making it to the runoff. However, he defied expectations and expressed confidence in his campaign’s progress.
Notably, none of the other 20 candidates managed to secure more than 8% of the vote in a fragmented election characterized by widespread voter mistrust. Less than half of Guatemala’s 9.4 million voters cast a valid ballot, with 40% abstaining and nearly a quarter of the ballots being blank or spoilt.
Alejandro Giammattei, the conservative president, is constitutionally prohibited from seeking re-election. His approval rating stands at approximately 26%, and last year, the US imposed sanctions on his attorney-general over allegations of significant corruption.
Arévalo positioned himself as a credible alternative for voters who are tired of a system perceived to be rigged against meaningful reforms. He pledged to prioritize the fight against corruption if elected.
Will Freeman, a Latin America fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York, deemed Torres’s first-place finish expected due to her significant political influence. However, Arévalo’s success came as a surprise, reflecting Guatemalans’ desire to rid themselves of a corrupt political class.
The US and EU both criticized the exclusion of candidates by an electoral tribunal accused of making politically motivated decisions. Carlos Pineda, a businessman who was initially considered a frontrunner but was disqualified, urged his supporters to invalidate their ballots.
Since the end of a 36-year civil war in 1996, Guatemala has attempted to consolidate democracy. However, critics argue that the quality of government has sharply declined following the expulsion of a UN-backed anti-corruption commission from the country in 2019.
Amid a wave of criminal prosecutions, including a recent six-year sentence for money laundering against a prominent journalist, numerous journalists and former anti-corruption officials have fled Guatemala.
This marks the third presidential campaign for Torres, following her defeat in the runoff against Giammattei in 2019. She is associated with the social programs introduced during her then-husband’s presidency and was previously charged with campaign finance irregularities and illicit association.
Analysts predict that Torres will face significant rejection in the second round, with more than 34% of respondents indicating they would never vote for her in an April poll.
Although Guatemala’s economy has been relatively stable and experienced above-average growth in 2022, high levels of inequality persist, with approximately half of the population living in poverty. Additionally, over 230,000 Guatemalans were apprehended crossing the US border illegally in both 2021 and 2022.
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