Every empire has its own esteemed historian who chronicles its triumphs and defeats. In 1776, alongside Adam Smith’s influential work “The Wealth of Nations,” British essayist Edward Gibbon penned the famous “History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire.” This year marked a turning point in history, as Britain lost its American colonies and turned its attention to the conquest of India. Gibbon attributed the fall of the Roman Empire to several key factors, including the passage of time, external invasions, misuse of resources, and internal conflicts. These warnings still resonate today.
The Roman Empire was built on a foundation of conquest. While the Roman legions were revered, the Praetorian Guard, consisting of highly skilled individuals responsible for intelligence, logistics, and national security, served as the backbone of the Empire. Their disciplined organization and effectiveness in military operations allowed the Roman Empire to overcome all adversaries. The Praetorian Guard functioned as the core staff between the consul and the legions, overseeing intelligence operations, strategy development, logistics, and negotiations with allies and enemies. Within Rome, the Guard became powerful kingmakers, assisting in the rise and fall of emperors.
Moving forward to World War I, amidst Europe’s destructive turmoil, German scholar Oscar Spengler presented his theory in “The Decline of the West.” He proposed that empires and civilizations undergo a natural lifecycle of birth, life, and death. Spengler famously predicted a crisis for the West after two centuries of power consolidation, ultimately leading to the collapse of Western civilization. Although Spengler’s ideas were discredited following World War II due to their association with Nazi expansion, British historian Arnold Toynbee provided a somewhat optimistic perspective in his monumental work “Studies in History.” Toynbee’s research on 26 civilizations demonstrated that empires can rise to historical challenges by responding creatively with innovation and technology. The success or failure of empires hinges on their elite guardians, including emperors and political leaders, who are tasked with preserving the integrity and growth of their respective empires. However, if these elites succumb to corruption and internal strife, the empire weakens and falls victim to internal collapse and external invasion.
Every nation possesses its own version of a praetorian guard, comprising defense agencies, national security organizations, intelligence bureaus, and think tanks that safeguard national interests. In modern times, one can draw a parallel to the Washington establishment, also known as the “blob,” which encompasses the Pentagon, State Department, intelligence community, and foreign affairs think tanks. Russia’s equivalent is referred to as the Kremlin, while other countries such as China, India, France, and Japan possess their own praetorian elites whose mission is to protect national integrity against all threats, including those to their national identity, beliefs, and values. Therefore, it can be argued that conflicts arise not from clashes of civilizations, but rather clashes between national praetorian guards who perceive their interests to be endangered, sometimes not just by external forces but also by weak leaders who betray their interests.
In recent years, the United States has witnessed a shift in power from Wall Street to its security elites, sparking concerns over the prioritization of American hegemonic interests. As Chairman Mao famously stated, “political power comes from the barrel of a gun,” highlighting the significance of military support in achieving stability. Thus, governments that effectively manage to keep their military forces in check are more likely to remain stable, whereas those who fail to satisfy their military’s demands become susceptible to coups. However, what happens when the interests of the praetorian guards diverge from those of the general public, who simply desire peace, stability, improved livelihoods, and reduced government intervention? In today’s era of misinformation and distorted media, the masses rightfully question whether their praetorian guards are truly working in their best interests or solely looking out for themselves. This crisis of trust in elites has fueled a populist desire for individuals who represent the common people and can oversee the actions of the established elites. Donald Trump is a prominent example of a populist figure who has tapped into this sentiment. The more the establishment tries to prevent his return as a presidential candidate, including recent legal actions against him, the more his supporters will rally behind him, convinced that the praetorian elites are primarily concerned with their own well-being.
Ancient history teaches us that empires decline when their elites prioritize their own interests over the welfare of the masses. Sometimes, elites instigate wars to redirect public anger away from themselves and towards external enemies. Can we draw parallels to the present age? Only time will tell, as history is the ultimate judge.
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